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OCTOBER 14,  2015

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:48 P.M. ET: 

A WARNING – From Financial Times:  Poor data on Wednesday suggested that the US consumer might finally be losing the will to shop, with overall sales growth below forecasts and sales, excluding cars and petrol, flat.  It is risky to focus on a single month’s figures — even when previous data were revised down — but the figures come as investors ask a fundamental question: do developed countries face good deflation or bad deflation?   We have lived the illusion that the American economy is strong.  It is not.  Look around you and see if there is great confidence.  You only see confidence in the Washington real-estate market because government has expanded, and there are signs of weakness there as well.

PUTIN SPEAKS – From Powerline:  Vladimir Putin once again showed his deep respect for Barack Obama, as he complained about the incompetence of U.S. policy in Syria:  “Now, we often hear that our pilots are striking the wrong targets, not IS,” Putin said at an investment forum in Moscow explaining that Russia had asked Washington to provide a list of targets.  But Washington declined.  “‘No, we are not ready for this’ was the answer,” Putin quoted them as saying. “Then we thought again and asked another question: then tell us where we should not strike. No answer too,” he said, adding: “That is not a joke. I did not make this up.”
“How is it possible to work together?” he asked. “I think some of our partners simply have mush for brains, they do not have a clear understanding of what really happens in the country and what goals they are seeking to achieve.”  No, they don't have mush for brains.  They simply have brains that were poorly trained in America's elite universities.

MAJOR EDUCATION VICTORY – From Fox:   Children in one Connecticut town almost found themselves all dressed up for Halloween with no place to go, after the district banned parades for fear they would exclude kids who didn't want to take part in the celebration.  However, officials from Milford Public Schools decided on Monday to reinstate parades and other Halloween activities at elementary schools in the district after parents protested the original decision.  “The principals and I are about educating our children," read a letter from School Superintendent Elizabeth Feser sent to parents Monday afternoon."With this in mind, knowing that the issue of Halloween is detracting from what we are truly about, and our time with our children around teaching and learning is most important, we have decided to reverse our decision.”  The original decision by Milford school officials to ban all Halloween parades at the elementary schools across the district had parents moaning, according to the Connecticut Post.  “I think it’s crazy,” Victoria Johannsen, the mother of a third-grader, told the newspaper. “I don’t understand why other avenues weren’t pursued.”  What is frightening is that teachers are often educated in profoundly left-wing "schools of education," where they learn to think like little lefties.  Fortunately, some parents are pushing back.

October 14, 2015       Permalink

FIRST AUDIENCE MEASURE FOR DEM DEBATE – AT 11:20 A.M. ET:   First indications are that the size of the CNN audience for last night's Democratic debate was larger than anticipated, but probably well below the audience for the first GOP debate.  From money.cnn.com:

Final ratings won't come in until later in the day. But preliminary Nielsen ratings indicate that CNN's Tuesday night debate was the highest-rated Democratic debate ever.

The 9 p.m. and 10 p.m. hours averaged an 11.2 household rating, meaning that 11% of all American homes with TVs were tuned in.

The previous Democratic debate record was set in 2008, when Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama squared off in prime time on ABC. That debate had an 8.9 household rating and 10.7 million total viewers.

The total viewer number for Tuesday's matchup will be released on Wednesday afternoon. It will be much lower than both recent Republican debates, but the early data suggests there was still a surprising surge of interest in Clinton, Bernie Sanders, Martin O'Malley, Lincoln Chafee and Jim Webb's first time together on stage.

Heading into Tuesday night, there was unanimous agreement that the total audience would be lower than the 25 million who tuned in for Fox's Republican debate on August 6. That debate -- fueled by Donald Trump -- shattered all previous primary debate records.

COMMENT:  Or, maybe viewers find the Republicans much more interesting. 

October 14, 2015       Permalink

CARSON CLOSING – AT 9:51 A.M. ET:  Despite a number of gaffes, Ben Carson is closing on Donald Trump.   From The Hill:

Ben Carson is getting close to ending Donald Trump’s reign atop the GOP polls, climbing to within 1 point of the business mogul and reality TV star in a new survey.

According to a Fox News poll released on Tuesday, Trump remains in the lead in the race for the party's nomination, with 24 percent support nationally, but Carson is a close behind at 23 percent.

Carson has been in second place behind only Trump in the last three Fox News polls, but has been gaining steadily.

Trump led Carson 26 percent to 18 percent in the same poll from late September, and 25 percent to 12 percent in the same poll from August.

Trump has led in every major poll since the middle of July.

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) is in third place with 10 percent support in the Fox News poll, followed by Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) at 9 percent and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush at 8 percent.

Carly Fiorina and Mike Huckabee each took 5 percent support in the survey.  That’s a drop for Fiorina, who was at 9 percent in the previous Fox survey taken shortly after the last Republican presidential debate.

COMMENT:  If Trump can be knocked out of first place, I don't think he'd get back in.  His negatives are simply too high.  He doesn't have much affection to draw on.

But then what?  Carson may be gaining popularity, but he continuously makes controversial statements, or statements that sound irrational.  So far those incidents haven't stopped his momentum, but if he gains the lead he'll be looked at much more closely. 

I still feel that Rubio is the one to watch.  A Hispanic from the key state of Florida.  Dynamic, superbly informed, attractive, taking positions that are nationally popular.  I think the next month will decide.  If Rubio gets some traction, he'll start to move.  If he doesn't, he may fade back into the pack.

October 14, 2015       Permalink

WHO WON? – AT 8:58 A.M. ET:  The general conventional wisdom among pundits is that Hillary Clinton won last night's debate simply by being assertive and confident.  But not everyone agrees.  A focus group put together by Frank Luntz – we mentioned this last night – believed that Sanders won, and by quite a bit.  From Fox:

During a live post-debate "Kelly File," Frank Luntz talked to a focus group of voters from the key swing state of Florida.

The participants agreed overwhelmingly that Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders was the big winner at the first Democratic debate.

Words that the group used to describe Sanders included strong, straightforward, confident, sincere, smart and direct.

As for the moment that generated the most positive reaction during the debate, participants agreed it was when Sanders addressed Hillary Clinton's email scandal.

"The American people are sick and tired of hearing about your damn emails!" Sanders said. "Enough of the emails. Let's talk about the real issues facing America."

COMMENT:  A young person's group at the University of Maryland also believed Sanders had won.  We'll get more precise polling in the coming days.  I wouldn't be shocked if the voters defy the pundits once again.

October 14, 2015       Permalink

DISGRACEFUL – AT 8:46 A.M. ET:  I want to report an incident that occurred last night in the auditorium where the Democratic debate was being held.  And journalists sometimes wonder why their credibility has been so badly dented.  From Gateway Pundit: 

Reporters in the press room at the Democratic Party presidential debate held in Las Vegas Tuesday night exploded in cheers after Sen. Bernie Sanders emphatically called for the media to stop reporting on the Hillary Clinton email controversy.

Two reporters in the press room, Hunter Walker of Yahoo News and Dave Rubin of Ora TV posted to Twitter the reaction of their fellow reporters.

The entire press room just exploded when Bernie said that about Hillary's emails. #DemDebate

— Dave Rubin (@RubinReport) October 14, 2015

“The entire press room just exploded when Bernie said that about Hillary’s emails. #DemDebate”

Audible clapping and laughter in the press filing room after Bernie Sanders' "enough of the emails moment."

— Hunter Walker (@hunterw) October 14, 2015

COMMENT:  That is so grossly unprofessional, although it's happened before.  It's bad enough to be biased.  It worse to show off your bias.  I guess some of these "journalists" think theirs is the only opinion worthy of consideration.

Self-indulgent and tacky.

October 14,  2015     Permalink

OCTOBER 13,  2015

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:57 P.M. ET: 

SUSAN RICE SPEAKS – So you may be sure it's nonsense.  From Breitbart:   In her most dramatic speech to date about climate change, National Security Advisor Susan Rice suggests climate change was partially responsible for the conflict in Syria and represents a looming threat to the entire world.  “In the years prior to civil war breaking out in Syria, that country also experienced its worst drought on record,” she said during a political speech at Stanford University. “Farming families moved en masse into urban centers, increasing political unrest and further priming the country for conflict.”  Uh, right.  It had nothing to do with her boss's erratic and weak policies.  And we're sure the Russians are now in Syria to fight "climate change."  Amazing what a little pollution can do.  Rice was also the official who told us that Benghazi was caused by a YouTube video.  She represents well the deceit of the Obama administration.

THE DEBATE – We note for the record that the Democrats had their first presidential debate tonight.  I spot-checked it, then watched the most important moments later in the roundup and examined a number of commentaries.  We'll have more in the morning.  Most pundits believe Hillary won, was poised and confident.  But as one observer noted, who did she win against?  Sanders, O'Malley, Chafee, Webb.  Webb, a moderate Democrat, was largely ignored by the leftist crowd and the leftist candidates, but was the only sane candidate and person of integrity on the stage.  At one time he would have been considered a mainstream Democrat.  Now he's considered a despised "moderate."  Most interesting reaction:  A Fox News focus group run by Frank Luntz, which believed that Sanders won, and was most believable.  Most interesting criticism from opponents of the Democratic Party:  The debate proved that the party has now gone far left, with no voice for moderates.  No word yet on audience size.

ANOTHER GREAT MOMENT IN EDUCATION:   From National Review:  An advisory council for Hillsborough Community College in Florida reportedly voted to stop saying the pledge of allegiance during a September meeting after a discussion about how it was making some people uncomfortable.  Local news affiliate WFLA reports that although members of the Institutional Advisory Council maintain that the reasoning behind the vote was to save time, the preliminary minutes reflect that there “was a heated discussion about ‘The Pledge of Allegiance and its appropriateness in an institution of higher learning which fosters academic freedom and structured dissent against authority.’”  “Some members expressed views that the Pledge made some people uncomfortable and that it violated their beliefs in academic freedom and the goals of the IAC,” the minutes stated, according to WFLA.  The council comprises students, faculty, and staff.  We have a legal tradition that no person is ever required to recite the Pledge of Allegiance.  We also have a cultural tradition that the Pledge is said at public meetings and school sessions.  People who feel "uncomfortable" need not participate.  People who feel "comfortable" should have the right to their own participation.  This is the left in action again.  Their belief in free speech seems to apply only to certain favored people and groups.

October 13,  2015     Permalink

FOX POLL – LATEST – AT 1:08 P.M. ET:  Hillary Clinton does not fare well, at all, in the newest Fox poll, out today.  But bear in mind that we're more than a year from the election.  Also, candidates are never as popular as they are on the day before they announce.  If Biden jumps in, the scrutiny begins, and he'll have to defend a long and very erratic record.  From Fox:   

Vice President Joe Biden trails Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination, yet he looks more electable than the former secretary of state against top Republicans.

As Democrats prepare for their first debate Tuesday evening, the latest Fox News national poll finds little movement in the primary. Clinton remains the front-runner among Democratic primary voters (45 percent), with Bernie Sanders (25 percent) and Biden (19 percent) behind her by about 20 percentage points. That's almost identical to where things stood three weeks ago.

Lincoln Chafee, Larry Lessig, Martin O'Malley, and Jim Webb each receive 1 percent or less.

Biden, who has yet to announce his candidacy, was invited to participate in the debate if he were to make it official; Lessig was not invited.

In hypothetical 2016 matchups with top-tier Republicans, Clinton trails all the Republicans tested. She trails Ben Carson by 11 points and Donald Trump by 5 points. Jeb Bush has a 4-point edge over Clinton, while Carly Fiorina is up by 3 points.

Biden fares better. He leads Trump by 13 points and tops Bush by 5 points. Biden is preferred over both Fiorina and Carson by 4 points. And Biden narrowly bests Marco Rubio by 1 point.

COMMENT:  Americans won't truly be focused on the presidential race until next year, but they are clearly focused on Hillary Clinton's legal problems, which accounts for Clinton's nosedive in the polls.

Much too early to say much, except that this will be a very competitive presidential election.  Our side has a good chance.  There is no truly magnetic Democratic candidate.

October 13, 2015       Permalink

YA THINK? – AT 9:56 A.M. ET:  The mayor of Chicago, who thinks deep thoughts, has come to an exciting conclusion on the relationship between rising crime rates and harassment of police.  From the Chicago Tribune: 

Mayor Rahm Emanuel on Monday stood by his contention that Chicago police officers are becoming "fetal" out of concern they will get in trouble for actions during arrests, blaming officers second-guessing themselves in the wake of high-profile incidents for rising crime rates in Chicago and elsewhere.

Last week, the mayor was part of a meeting in Washington, D.C., with Attorney General Loretta Lynch and a group of mayors and police officials from across the nation to discuss a spike in homicides and other crime.

"We have allowed our Police Department to get fetal, and it is having a direct consequence. They have pulled back from the ability to interdict … they don't want to be a news story themselves, they don't want their career ended early, and it's having an impact," Emanuel said, according to the Washington Post.

On Monday, Emanuel pointed to that tentativeness as one of the causes of an increase in crime here this year. "What happened post-Baltimore, what happened post-Ferguson is having an impact," Emanuel said. "And I still believe recent events over the last year or 18 months have had an impact. And officers will tell you that. And I tried to speak up for the good officers that are doing community policing that make up the men and women of the Chicago Police Department."

Emanuel's decision to blame violent crime increases in part on the after-effects of the death of Freddie Gray while in police custody in Baltimore and the fatal shooting of Michael Brown by a police officer in Ferguson, Mo., cases that led to rioting in those cites, comes as Chicago sees violence on the uptick.

COMMENT:  I must admit that Emanuel is showing some courage in speaking out like this, as he's likely to be attacked by the race industry and the hustlers.  Yes, of course there are some bad cops who deserve punishment when they use excessive force or break the law.  But the great majority of officers try to do an honest job, and they're understandably afraid of intervening, especially in inner-city communities, when they know that they can easily be accused of something they never did because someone wants to build a legal or political career. 

October 13, 2015       Permalink

ANOTHER SHOE DROPS – AT 9:22 A.M. ET:  Ace investigative reporter Michael Isikoff is nailing Hillary Clinton over what may be the most damaging revelation yet to come out of her sloppily managed e-mails.  The gun is smoking.  And if this gun is smoking, what others are about to smoke?  From NRO: 

Investigative journalist Michael Isikoff reports that an e-mail Sidney Blumenthal sent Hillary Clinton while secretary of State revealed the name of a CIA operator, putting the spy’s life at risk. Appearing Monday on Morning Joe, Isikoff said the e-mail, which Clinton forwarded to one of her State Department colleagues, is “evidence of a commission of a federal crime by somebody,” though not necessarily Clinton.

“This is maybe the single most problematic e-mail exchange we’ve seen with Hillary Clinton yet of all the e-mails that have been raised,” Isikoff said. “What you have there is Blumenthal telling the secretary that somebody at the CIA gave the name of a sensitive human intelligence source to somebody who wasn’t at the CIA.”

"On its face, that is problematic. All we know at this point is that Secretary Clinton forwarded that e-mail to a colleague at the State Department,” Isikoff continued.

Former CIA counsel, John Rizzo, also appearing on Morning Joe, highlighted the severity of the security lapse: “That’s the holiest of holies inside CIA — the true identity of a secret source.”

COMMENT:  Very serious indeed.  And yet, note the lack of interest by our supposedly zealous media.  Remember that during the Bush 43 administration much hysteria was created by journalists when CIA employee Valerie Plame was "outed."  It became a huge story and a Hollywood movie.  The implication of the reporting was that the Bush people were retaliating against Plame by exposing her identity because her ambassador husband produced a report the Bushies didn't like.

It later turned out that the "outing" was done by someone else, and that the Bushies had nothing to do with it.  But who cares about facts?

Eventually the Benghazi committee in the House, or perhaps some other committee, will have to take a good look at this outrageous leak of a named source.  Will it matter?  Yes.  It's part of the drip, drip, drip, that can eventually drown the Clinton candidacy.

October 13, 2015       Permalink

FEEL THE EXCITEMENT – AT 8:43 A.M. ET:  The first Democratic debate is tonight, from the high-rolling city of Las Vegas.  Can you sense the national excitement?  The anticipation?  The wonder?  No, neither can I.

CNN, which is hosting the debate, has been promoting it to eternity.  I've never seen such self-serving promotion.  Hour after hour of "direct from Vegas" reports.  They're actually running a countdown clock on the screen indicating how many hours, minutes and seconds we have to go before the event.  Why, there's Hillary Clinton's makeup kit arriving.  Wait, I see Bernie Sanders's travel iron.  Let's hear what the iron has to say.   Lincoln and Douglas never had it so good.

There actually seems no great excitement at all.  Sure, we want to know how Hillary does, and we'll want to see just how softball the CNN softball questions will be.  There is some curiosity about how Sanders will take on Hillary.  The man is, after all, a committed socialist.  She may be a socialist, too, but uncommitted. 

There is substantial fear at CNN that the TV ratings for the debate will be underwhelming. 

And then there's a guy called Joe.  The man who didn't come to dinner.  Joe Biden, still decidin', will not be there.  And the question now is whether he's waiting too long to decide, whether his hour has passed.  One reporter noted that only six Dem debates are planned, and that the next five will be on weekends, when audiences will inevitably be smaller.  If Joe gets in, who will he be speaking to during those next five debates? 

The punditry tells us that Hillary had a good week last week.  A good week for Hillary is a week when she isn't charged with anything new.  She still has hanging over her multiple investigations that will drift into the election year.  She may even have to lawyer up. 

Well, I guess I'll have to watch.  It's a sacrifice I will make for our readers.  Frankly, I'd rather be seeing YouTube films of old Brooklyn Dodger baseball games, or reruns of Jack Webb in "Dragnet."   But there are times in life when we must inflict pain on ourselves.  I'll get out the Advil.

October 13,  2015     Permalink